Wednesday, October 14, 2009

The Black Swan Event

I believe that the current recession is a black swan event. The theory propagated by Taleb states that black swan events are events which happen once in a lifetime and have an impact which is forever. I believe that this recession is exactly that. This not only has brought more focus on the importance of having adequate risk measures in place, but also integrated and united the world on having regulations to prevent a few people taking advantage of the system at the cost of the larger population. The bright side is that the growth pace will be faster now that the recession is bottoming out but the growth will be in a regulated framework so chances of things slipping out will reduce. The next phase of growth has begun and any one who is interested in making it big should make their move now as the world is at an inflection point ready to prance into the growth trajectory.

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